2025-08-09

timeline of what was not

an application could take a given year and return a list describing the life situation of common people at that time by identifying impactful opportunities and knowledge not yet available.

this relates to a "tech-tree" of civilization, analogous to hierarchical progressions in games, but simplified to a basic when-and-where classification of common availability of impactful opportunities.

since availability can fluctuate, a minimum stability period is useful. definitions of "critical mass" (the population share having threshold access) and "meaningful impact" (significant effect on daily life of common people) are essential.

data tuple

(year, region, population_share, concept, stability_years, certainty, source)
  • year: integer, CE-relative (negative for BCE)
  • region: optional opaque string (e.g. "global", "europe", "han_empire")
  • population_share: fraction of relevant population in [0.0..1.0] with threshold access
  • concept: lowercase author-supplied string
  • stability_years: contiguous years meeting population_share threshold
  • certainty: [0.0..1.0]
  • source: reference or URL

thresholds

  • critical_mass_pop: default 0.2
  • critical_mass_stability: default 10

"available" at year y if:

  • year ≤ y
  • region matches (or is global if region unspecified)
  • population_share ≥ critical_mass_pop
  • stability_years ≥ critical_mass_stability

"not yet" is the negation.

categories

  • nature: natural preconditions (formation of earth, stars, atmosphere)
  • life: biological developments (mammals, humans)
  • materials: substances for tools, structures, or manufacturing
  • energy: power sources
  • mobility: transport of people or goods
  • infrastructure: constructed systems enabling other capabilities
  • communication: transmission of information
  • knowledge: abstract understanding of reality
  • health: maintaining or improving human health
  • automation: replacing human labor with machines
  • organization: governance, economics, legal systems
  • entertainment: activities not directly fulfilling physical needs or enabling other categories
  • safety: measures reducing risk of harm

examples

generative pre-trained transformer large language models
body cameras
medical c-sections
medical lobotomy
electricity led light-bulbs
electricity cfl
sustenance animal domestication
sustenance potatoes
communication newspapers
economy coins
law prisons
nature stars
nature galaxies
nature thick atmosphere
nature ozone layer
nature magnetic field
nature earth
life mammals
life humans
materials spring steel
materials stone
materials bronze
materials iron
materials fire
communication paper
communication writing with feathers
communication internet
communication telephone
communication television
communication printing
communication radio
communication mail
communication flatscreens
communication dumbphones
communication smartphones
infrastructure formation of earth
infrastructure light bulb
infrastructure electricity
infrastructure glassed windows
infrastructure paved streets
infrastructure plumbing
infrastructure street lighting
infrastructure led lighting becomes economically viable
automation steam engine
automation tractor
automation transistor
automation computer
automation washing machine
automation electric loom
automation agriculture
mobility automobile
mobility carriages
mobility airplanes
mobility bicycle
health penicillin
health anesthesia
health x-rays
health vaccines
health germ-theory
entertainment photography
entertainment black and white television
entertainment color television
organization calendar
organization labor laws
organization working hours
organization population density
organization literacy
organization oral contraceptives / condom
organization tampons
organization slavery
organization money
organization law and order
safety seatbelt laws
safety car headlights
safety building codes
politics tribalism
politics statehood
politics federalism
politics democracy
politics liberalism
politics monarchy
1600 telescope, microscope
-1000000 fire
1455 printing
1765 steam engine
1804 railways
1826 photography
1844 telegraph
1879 electric light
1885 automobile
1901 radio
1903 airplane
1927 television
1937 computer
1947 transistor
1892 dmitri ivanovsky discovers viruses
1895 wilhelm conrad röntgen discovers x-rays
1896 henri becquerel discovers radioactivity
1880 adult literacy reaches 20% of the global population
1960 first oral contraceptive approved in usa
1900 electrification begins
1868 washing machine

highlights

electrification of homes and cities (early 20th century)
mass production and assembly line (1910s)
commercial aviation (1930s–1950s)
antibiotics and modern medicine (1930s onward)
nuclear energy and weapons (1940s)
television becomes mainstream (1950s–1960s)
civil rights movements and legal reforms (1950s–1970s)
space exploration and moon landing (1960s–1970s)
personal computing (1970s–1980s)
internet becomes widespread (1990s)
globalization and supply chain integration (1990s–2000s)
smartphones and mobile computing (2007 onward)
social media reshaping communication (2010s)
mainstream adoption of generative ai (2020s)