2025-08-30

estimating the contribution factors of knowledge and mindset to human progress

estimated multipliers:

  • mindset (method, recordkeeping, scaling) ≈ 3 to 5x
  • technical catalog (designs, formulas, proven practices) ≈ 5x
  • combined = 15 to 25x

outcomes:

  • catalog without mindset -> stagnation, loss, misapplication.
  • mindset without catalog -> steady progress, limited by discovery cycles.
  • both -> compressed timelines, minimal dead ends.

derivation

  • starting point: early agriculture (~-10050).

  • historical path to present: 5000 to 10000 years.

  • with only disciplined method -> 3 to 5x faster (1500 to 3000 years).

  • with only full catalog -> ~5x faster (~2000 years).

  • with both -> 15 to 25x faster, 200 to 300 years.

formula

baseline = 1
mindset_factor = 3..5
catalog_factor = 5
combined = 15..25

historical inflections

  • ~1450: printing press - replication of works, distribution explosion.
  • ~1600 to 1700: scientific method - systematic accumulation, institutional preservation.
  • ~1750 to 1850: industrial revolution - expansion of energy and materials, large-scale feasibility.

curve dynamics

steepening occurs when:

  • disciplined method shortens invention cycles.
  • replication systems spread existing solutions universally.
  • expanded resource base enables construction of previously impossible systems.