# estimating the contribution factors of knowledge and mindset to human progress
estimated multipliers:
* mindset (method, recordkeeping, scaling) ≈ 3 to 5x
* technical catalog (designs, formulas, proven practices) ≈ 5x
* combined = 15 to 25x

outcomes:
* catalog without mindset -> stagnation, loss, misapplication.
* mindset without catalog -> steady progress, limited by discovery cycles.
* both -> compressed timelines, minimal dead ends.

## derivation
* starting point: early agriculture (~-10050).
* historical path to present: 5000 to 10000 years.

* with only disciplined method -> 3 to 5x faster (1500 to 3000 years).
* with only full catalog -> ~5x faster (~2000 years).
* with both -> 15 to 25x faster, 200 to 300 years.

## formula
```
baseline = 1
mindset_factor = 3..5
catalog_factor = 5
combined = 15..25
```

## historical inflections
* \~1450: printing press  -  replication of works, distribution explosion.
* \~1600 to 1700: scientific method  -  systematic accumulation, institutional preservation.
* \~1750 to 1850: industrial revolution  -  expansion of energy and materials, large-scale feasibility.

## curve dynamics
steepening occurs when:
* disciplined method shortens invention cycles.
* replication systems spread existing solutions universally.
* expanded resource base enables construction of previously impossible systems.