estimating the contribution factors of knowledge and mindset to human progress.
estimated multipliers:
- mindset (method, recordkeeping, scaling) ≈ 3 to 5x
- technical catalog (designs, formulas, proven practices) ≈ 5x
- combined = 15 to 25x
outcomes:
- catalog without mindset -> stagnation, loss, misapplication.
- mindset without catalog -> steady progress, limited by discovery cycles.
- both -> compressed timelines, minimal dead ends.
derivation
starting point: early agriculture (~-10050).
historical path to present: 5000 to 10000 years.
with only disciplined method -> 3 to 5x faster (1500 to 3000 years).
with only full catalog -> ~5x faster (~2000 years).
with both -> 15 to 25x faster, 200 to 300 years.
formula
baseline = 1
mindset_factor = 3..5
catalog_factor = 5
combined = 15..25
historical inflections
- ~1450: printing press - replication of works, distribution explosion.
- ~1600 to 1700: scientific method - systematic accumulation, institutional preservation.
- ~1750 to 1850: industrial revolution - expansion of energy and materials, large-scale feasibility.
curve dynamics
steepening occurs when:
- disciplined method shortens invention cycles.
- replication systems spread existing solutions universally.
- expanded resource base enables construction of previously impossible systems.